An Undercover Army












2












$begingroup$


Suppose you want to invade Russia. But, beating it in a conventional or nuclear war isn't possible for your people for some reason.



What if, instead, you line up 500,000 soldiers to move to Russia with civilian cover stories, blend in, and at the right moment, emerge everywhere at once with the benefit of surprise, and take over, dropping their cover and becoming an invading/occupying Army (a bit like the lizard people TV mini-series V, but with humans, not lizard people). Put another way, something a bit like a supply it yourself Fifth Column.



Could it be done?



How quickly could it be put in place without being discovered?



What tactics or tools would be needed?



Are there any historical precedents for similar tactics being tried and either working or failing?



(Of course, Russia is just a concrete example. It could be India, or Brazil, or Nigeria, instead, for example.)










share|improve this question









$endgroup$












  • $begingroup$
    Do you mean sleeper cells and sleeper agents?
    $endgroup$
    – Nathan Hopp
    1 hour ago










  • $begingroup$
    @NathanHopp sounds like it. But on a really massive scale - an army-sized network of these.
    $endgroup$
    – VLAZ
    1 hour ago










  • $begingroup$
    "Historical precedents": the rape (=abduction) of the Sabine women comes to mind. Mythical, true. "Tactics": Pietro da Cortona, Nicolas Poussin, Jacques Stella...
    $endgroup$
    – AlexP
    1 hour ago
















2












$begingroup$


Suppose you want to invade Russia. But, beating it in a conventional or nuclear war isn't possible for your people for some reason.



What if, instead, you line up 500,000 soldiers to move to Russia with civilian cover stories, blend in, and at the right moment, emerge everywhere at once with the benefit of surprise, and take over, dropping their cover and becoming an invading/occupying Army (a bit like the lizard people TV mini-series V, but with humans, not lizard people). Put another way, something a bit like a supply it yourself Fifth Column.



Could it be done?



How quickly could it be put in place without being discovered?



What tactics or tools would be needed?



Are there any historical precedents for similar tactics being tried and either working or failing?



(Of course, Russia is just a concrete example. It could be India, or Brazil, or Nigeria, instead, for example.)










share|improve this question









$endgroup$












  • $begingroup$
    Do you mean sleeper cells and sleeper agents?
    $endgroup$
    – Nathan Hopp
    1 hour ago










  • $begingroup$
    @NathanHopp sounds like it. But on a really massive scale - an army-sized network of these.
    $endgroup$
    – VLAZ
    1 hour ago










  • $begingroup$
    "Historical precedents": the rape (=abduction) of the Sabine women comes to mind. Mythical, true. "Tactics": Pietro da Cortona, Nicolas Poussin, Jacques Stella...
    $endgroup$
    – AlexP
    1 hour ago














2












2








2





$begingroup$


Suppose you want to invade Russia. But, beating it in a conventional or nuclear war isn't possible for your people for some reason.



What if, instead, you line up 500,000 soldiers to move to Russia with civilian cover stories, blend in, and at the right moment, emerge everywhere at once with the benefit of surprise, and take over, dropping their cover and becoming an invading/occupying Army (a bit like the lizard people TV mini-series V, but with humans, not lizard people). Put another way, something a bit like a supply it yourself Fifth Column.



Could it be done?



How quickly could it be put in place without being discovered?



What tactics or tools would be needed?



Are there any historical precedents for similar tactics being tried and either working or failing?



(Of course, Russia is just a concrete example. It could be India, or Brazil, or Nigeria, instead, for example.)










share|improve this question









$endgroup$




Suppose you want to invade Russia. But, beating it in a conventional or nuclear war isn't possible for your people for some reason.



What if, instead, you line up 500,000 soldiers to move to Russia with civilian cover stories, blend in, and at the right moment, emerge everywhere at once with the benefit of surprise, and take over, dropping their cover and becoming an invading/occupying Army (a bit like the lizard people TV mini-series V, but with humans, not lizard people). Put another way, something a bit like a supply it yourself Fifth Column.



Could it be done?



How quickly could it be put in place without being discovered?



What tactics or tools would be needed?



Are there any historical precedents for similar tactics being tried and either working or failing?



(Of course, Russia is just a concrete example. It could be India, or Brazil, or Nigeria, instead, for example.)







reality-check military history conspiracy






share|improve this question













share|improve this question











share|improve this question




share|improve this question










asked 2 hours ago









ohwillekeohwilleke

7,6552452




7,6552452












  • $begingroup$
    Do you mean sleeper cells and sleeper agents?
    $endgroup$
    – Nathan Hopp
    1 hour ago










  • $begingroup$
    @NathanHopp sounds like it. But on a really massive scale - an army-sized network of these.
    $endgroup$
    – VLAZ
    1 hour ago










  • $begingroup$
    "Historical precedents": the rape (=abduction) of the Sabine women comes to mind. Mythical, true. "Tactics": Pietro da Cortona, Nicolas Poussin, Jacques Stella...
    $endgroup$
    – AlexP
    1 hour ago


















  • $begingroup$
    Do you mean sleeper cells and sleeper agents?
    $endgroup$
    – Nathan Hopp
    1 hour ago










  • $begingroup$
    @NathanHopp sounds like it. But on a really massive scale - an army-sized network of these.
    $endgroup$
    – VLAZ
    1 hour ago










  • $begingroup$
    "Historical precedents": the rape (=abduction) of the Sabine women comes to mind. Mythical, true. "Tactics": Pietro da Cortona, Nicolas Poussin, Jacques Stella...
    $endgroup$
    – AlexP
    1 hour ago
















$begingroup$
Do you mean sleeper cells and sleeper agents?
$endgroup$
– Nathan Hopp
1 hour ago




$begingroup$
Do you mean sleeper cells and sleeper agents?
$endgroup$
– Nathan Hopp
1 hour ago












$begingroup$
@NathanHopp sounds like it. But on a really massive scale - an army-sized network of these.
$endgroup$
– VLAZ
1 hour ago




$begingroup$
@NathanHopp sounds like it. But on a really massive scale - an army-sized network of these.
$endgroup$
– VLAZ
1 hour ago












$begingroup$
"Historical precedents": the rape (=abduction) of the Sabine women comes to mind. Mythical, true. "Tactics": Pietro da Cortona, Nicolas Poussin, Jacques Stella...
$endgroup$
– AlexP
1 hour ago




$begingroup$
"Historical precedents": the rape (=abduction) of the Sabine women comes to mind. Mythical, true. "Tactics": Pietro da Cortona, Nicolas Poussin, Jacques Stella...
$endgroup$
– AlexP
1 hour ago










4 Answers
4






active

oldest

votes


















3












$begingroup$

Short answer is no, but the longer answer is far more interesting.



First of all, if you're looking at a simple, knock down, drag out fight with the military in question, let's assume you need equal numbers to the military in question.



There is a really cool graph out of the world bank that shows the percentages of population in the military across the world, and by country, over time. The current average is around 0.9%, but let's assume that you want to get 1% of Russia's population being made up of your fifth column.



Russia's population is currently around 145m, meaning you need 1.4m, maybe 1.5m sleepers in the country. Based on some statistics I pulled off the internet, in 2017 Russia admitted around 250k immigrants that year.



Based on this model, assuming you can take EVERY immigration place in the Russian admission program, it's still going to take you 6 years to embed your sleeper force.



BUT; if you want an army and not a network of terror cells, you also need equipment. You need guns (of course), possibly tanks, planes, missiles, and LOTS of computers. You need infrastructure like training bases, etc. Otherwise, all you're doing is engaging in a guerrilla war in the streets, and that's still going to need lots and lots of small arms.



BUT; you also need a plan. Just going street to street and taking the country is (in a word) dumb. You want to take critical infrastructure, especially communication infrastructure, and neutralise your enemy's capacity to fight back. That means taking their bases et al. For that, you really want to embed your army in their army.



That means infiltration, having kids that are born in Russia, and getting them ALL to join the military. That's on average a 30 year investment or so to get the outcome you're after.



I'd argue that there's more efficient ways to do it, but it does have one single benefit that ties in nicely with Sun Tzu; you'd have your army literally living off the enemy lands once you've started your covert invasion.






share|improve this answer









$endgroup$





















    3












    $begingroup$

    Russia has one of the most liberal immigration policies in the world (a measure Putin's government implemented to counteract its plummeting population due to demographics), but a half-million people in a short period of time is a bit excessive. Still, somewhat theoretically possible.



    There are two problems you're going to have to deal with. Russia has one of the strictest gun control regimes on the planet. Aside from shotguns and rifles that people in the rural area have limited permission (note: not right) to possess, there are no legal privately owned firearms. So where this army getting its weapons? And where are they keeping them?



    The second issue is maintaining secrecy. There's actually math that can be used to calculate how long a secret can be kept before it can be expected to get out.




    On the Viability of Conspiratorial Beliefs



    Conspiratorial ideation is the tendency of individuals to believe that
    events and power relations are secretly manipulated by certain
    clandestine groups and organisations. Many of these ostensibly
    explanatory conjectures are non-falsifiable, lacking in evidence or
    demonstrably false, yet public acceptance remains high. Efforts to
    convince the general public of the validity of medical and scientific
    findings can be hampered by such narratives, which can create the
    impression of doubt or disagreement in areas where the science is well
    established. Conversely, historical examples of exposed conspiracies
    do exist and it may be difficult for people to differentiate between
    reasonable and dubious assertions. In this work, we establish a simple
    mathematical model for conspiracies involving multiple actors with
    time, which yields failure probability for any given conspiracy.
    Parameters for the model are estimated from literature examples of
    known scandals, and the factors influencing conspiracy success and
    failure are explored. The model is also used to estimate the
    likelihood of claims from some commonly-held conspiratorial beliefs;
    these are namely that the moon-landings were faked, climate-change is
    a hoax, vaccination is dangerous and that a cure for cancer is being
    suppressed by vested interests. Simulations of these claims predict
    that intrinsic failure would be imminent even with the most generous
    estimates for the secret-keeping ability of active participants—the
    results of this model suggest that large conspiracies (≥1000 agents)
    quickly become untenable and prone to failure. The theory presented
    here might be useful in counteracting the potentially deleterious
    consequences of bogus and anti-science narratives, and examining the
    hypothetical conditions under which sustainable conspiracy might be
    possible.



    https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0147905




    TLDR version: the more people involved, the faster someone will blow it. Using some of the examples in the article, counting just the 500,000 soldiers it will be a near certainty the operation will be blown in under 3 years. There's 50% odds it will be blown within one year. And that doesn't count the people staying at home who know about the operation.



    So, realistically, no.






    share|improve this answer









    $endgroup$





















      1












      $begingroup$

      The biggest problem that you're going to face is secrecy



      I probably don't need to point out that 500,000 people is a large number. Each one of those soldiers is a detection risk. If any one of them acts suspiciously enough to be picked up by the Russian intelligence operations. Even worse, each one of your soldiers is a defection risk.



      And once you've lost the element of surprise, every part of your plan works against you. Your soldiers are isolated, difficult to contact, and in a foreign country. They'll be easily picked up one by one, and by the time it comes for you to trigger the attack, you'll have no army.



      Even if every member of your army has ironclad loyalty and master level acting skills, you'll still get discovered



      Wikipedia places the population of temporary migrant workers at about 7 million. That means that 500,000 additional people is about a 7% increase in that count, not exactly a drop in the bucket. Especially since the increase is coming entirely from a single country.



      Even if some of your soldiers arrive through other channels, you simply can't conceal the movement of that many people, and the powers that be are going to notice. Especially when they notice that your armed forces are vanishing mysteriously.






      share|improve this answer









      $endgroup$













      • $begingroup$
        "Especially when they notice that your armed forces are vanishing mysteriously." yeah, I was thinking about that in relation to something else. Even assuming your soldiers have ironclad loyalty and master level acting skills, they still need to arrive in Russia which includes a background check. So you'd have to have a bunch of people forging documents for them and making up backgrounds. Are all of these people master level forgers and writers, too? Surely even a bad immigration officer in Russia would eventually go "hold on, this doesn't make sense" after seeing a thousand bacckgrounds.
        $endgroup$
        – VLAZ
        50 mins ago










      • $begingroup$
        And somebody at some point would look just a little bit into this mass exodus from the country and see that, gee, the army is getting depleted.
        $endgroup$
        – VLAZ
        49 mins ago



















      1












      $begingroup$

      Infiltration might work for small targets, but a whole country is too big of a chop for it to work alone.



      First of all, if you want to be secretive, you cannot board 500000 soldiers on the smallest number of flights, so you would have to dilute them among normal passengers. Let's say you use 50 soldiers per flight. It takes 10000 flights to carry the entire group, and assuming you fly to the major 3 cities, with a flight every day, it will take you a bit more than 9 years just to infiltrate them.



      Then you need to provide them logistic support: they will have to be provided weapons, instructions, means of sustaining, a believable façade to ensure they can stay that long in a foreign country without looking too suspicious and without leaking any info outside or defecting. Oh, of course you need that façade also before they depart. Formally they never worked for the army (and I doubt your own government will be happy with having 500000 secret soldiers).



      Then, when the day X comes, you cannot hope for them to take over the country without giving them some sort of support: air supremacy is a must in modern warfare, and you have infiltrated only soldiers.






      share|improve this answer









      $endgroup$













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        4 Answers
        4






        active

        oldest

        votes








        4 Answers
        4






        active

        oldest

        votes









        active

        oldest

        votes






        active

        oldest

        votes









        3












        $begingroup$

        Short answer is no, but the longer answer is far more interesting.



        First of all, if you're looking at a simple, knock down, drag out fight with the military in question, let's assume you need equal numbers to the military in question.



        There is a really cool graph out of the world bank that shows the percentages of population in the military across the world, and by country, over time. The current average is around 0.9%, but let's assume that you want to get 1% of Russia's population being made up of your fifth column.



        Russia's population is currently around 145m, meaning you need 1.4m, maybe 1.5m sleepers in the country. Based on some statistics I pulled off the internet, in 2017 Russia admitted around 250k immigrants that year.



        Based on this model, assuming you can take EVERY immigration place in the Russian admission program, it's still going to take you 6 years to embed your sleeper force.



        BUT; if you want an army and not a network of terror cells, you also need equipment. You need guns (of course), possibly tanks, planes, missiles, and LOTS of computers. You need infrastructure like training bases, etc. Otherwise, all you're doing is engaging in a guerrilla war in the streets, and that's still going to need lots and lots of small arms.



        BUT; you also need a plan. Just going street to street and taking the country is (in a word) dumb. You want to take critical infrastructure, especially communication infrastructure, and neutralise your enemy's capacity to fight back. That means taking their bases et al. For that, you really want to embed your army in their army.



        That means infiltration, having kids that are born in Russia, and getting them ALL to join the military. That's on average a 30 year investment or so to get the outcome you're after.



        I'd argue that there's more efficient ways to do it, but it does have one single benefit that ties in nicely with Sun Tzu; you'd have your army literally living off the enemy lands once you've started your covert invasion.






        share|improve this answer









        $endgroup$


















          3












          $begingroup$

          Short answer is no, but the longer answer is far more interesting.



          First of all, if you're looking at a simple, knock down, drag out fight with the military in question, let's assume you need equal numbers to the military in question.



          There is a really cool graph out of the world bank that shows the percentages of population in the military across the world, and by country, over time. The current average is around 0.9%, but let's assume that you want to get 1% of Russia's population being made up of your fifth column.



          Russia's population is currently around 145m, meaning you need 1.4m, maybe 1.5m sleepers in the country. Based on some statistics I pulled off the internet, in 2017 Russia admitted around 250k immigrants that year.



          Based on this model, assuming you can take EVERY immigration place in the Russian admission program, it's still going to take you 6 years to embed your sleeper force.



          BUT; if you want an army and not a network of terror cells, you also need equipment. You need guns (of course), possibly tanks, planes, missiles, and LOTS of computers. You need infrastructure like training bases, etc. Otherwise, all you're doing is engaging in a guerrilla war in the streets, and that's still going to need lots and lots of small arms.



          BUT; you also need a plan. Just going street to street and taking the country is (in a word) dumb. You want to take critical infrastructure, especially communication infrastructure, and neutralise your enemy's capacity to fight back. That means taking their bases et al. For that, you really want to embed your army in their army.



          That means infiltration, having kids that are born in Russia, and getting them ALL to join the military. That's on average a 30 year investment or so to get the outcome you're after.



          I'd argue that there's more efficient ways to do it, but it does have one single benefit that ties in nicely with Sun Tzu; you'd have your army literally living off the enemy lands once you've started your covert invasion.






          share|improve this answer









          $endgroup$
















            3












            3








            3





            $begingroup$

            Short answer is no, but the longer answer is far more interesting.



            First of all, if you're looking at a simple, knock down, drag out fight with the military in question, let's assume you need equal numbers to the military in question.



            There is a really cool graph out of the world bank that shows the percentages of population in the military across the world, and by country, over time. The current average is around 0.9%, but let's assume that you want to get 1% of Russia's population being made up of your fifth column.



            Russia's population is currently around 145m, meaning you need 1.4m, maybe 1.5m sleepers in the country. Based on some statistics I pulled off the internet, in 2017 Russia admitted around 250k immigrants that year.



            Based on this model, assuming you can take EVERY immigration place in the Russian admission program, it's still going to take you 6 years to embed your sleeper force.



            BUT; if you want an army and not a network of terror cells, you also need equipment. You need guns (of course), possibly tanks, planes, missiles, and LOTS of computers. You need infrastructure like training bases, etc. Otherwise, all you're doing is engaging in a guerrilla war in the streets, and that's still going to need lots and lots of small arms.



            BUT; you also need a plan. Just going street to street and taking the country is (in a word) dumb. You want to take critical infrastructure, especially communication infrastructure, and neutralise your enemy's capacity to fight back. That means taking their bases et al. For that, you really want to embed your army in their army.



            That means infiltration, having kids that are born in Russia, and getting them ALL to join the military. That's on average a 30 year investment or so to get the outcome you're after.



            I'd argue that there's more efficient ways to do it, but it does have one single benefit that ties in nicely with Sun Tzu; you'd have your army literally living off the enemy lands once you've started your covert invasion.






            share|improve this answer









            $endgroup$



            Short answer is no, but the longer answer is far more interesting.



            First of all, if you're looking at a simple, knock down, drag out fight with the military in question, let's assume you need equal numbers to the military in question.



            There is a really cool graph out of the world bank that shows the percentages of population in the military across the world, and by country, over time. The current average is around 0.9%, but let's assume that you want to get 1% of Russia's population being made up of your fifth column.



            Russia's population is currently around 145m, meaning you need 1.4m, maybe 1.5m sleepers in the country. Based on some statistics I pulled off the internet, in 2017 Russia admitted around 250k immigrants that year.



            Based on this model, assuming you can take EVERY immigration place in the Russian admission program, it's still going to take you 6 years to embed your sleeper force.



            BUT; if you want an army and not a network of terror cells, you also need equipment. You need guns (of course), possibly tanks, planes, missiles, and LOTS of computers. You need infrastructure like training bases, etc. Otherwise, all you're doing is engaging in a guerrilla war in the streets, and that's still going to need lots and lots of small arms.



            BUT; you also need a plan. Just going street to street and taking the country is (in a word) dumb. You want to take critical infrastructure, especially communication infrastructure, and neutralise your enemy's capacity to fight back. That means taking their bases et al. For that, you really want to embed your army in their army.



            That means infiltration, having kids that are born in Russia, and getting them ALL to join the military. That's on average a 30 year investment or so to get the outcome you're after.



            I'd argue that there's more efficient ways to do it, but it does have one single benefit that ties in nicely with Sun Tzu; you'd have your army literally living off the enemy lands once you've started your covert invasion.







            share|improve this answer












            share|improve this answer



            share|improve this answer










            answered 1 hour ago









            Tim B IITim B II

            30.3k665120




            30.3k665120























                3












                $begingroup$

                Russia has one of the most liberal immigration policies in the world (a measure Putin's government implemented to counteract its plummeting population due to demographics), but a half-million people in a short period of time is a bit excessive. Still, somewhat theoretically possible.



                There are two problems you're going to have to deal with. Russia has one of the strictest gun control regimes on the planet. Aside from shotguns and rifles that people in the rural area have limited permission (note: not right) to possess, there are no legal privately owned firearms. So where this army getting its weapons? And where are they keeping them?



                The second issue is maintaining secrecy. There's actually math that can be used to calculate how long a secret can be kept before it can be expected to get out.




                On the Viability of Conspiratorial Beliefs



                Conspiratorial ideation is the tendency of individuals to believe that
                events and power relations are secretly manipulated by certain
                clandestine groups and organisations. Many of these ostensibly
                explanatory conjectures are non-falsifiable, lacking in evidence or
                demonstrably false, yet public acceptance remains high. Efforts to
                convince the general public of the validity of medical and scientific
                findings can be hampered by such narratives, which can create the
                impression of doubt or disagreement in areas where the science is well
                established. Conversely, historical examples of exposed conspiracies
                do exist and it may be difficult for people to differentiate between
                reasonable and dubious assertions. In this work, we establish a simple
                mathematical model for conspiracies involving multiple actors with
                time, which yields failure probability for any given conspiracy.
                Parameters for the model are estimated from literature examples of
                known scandals, and the factors influencing conspiracy success and
                failure are explored. The model is also used to estimate the
                likelihood of claims from some commonly-held conspiratorial beliefs;
                these are namely that the moon-landings were faked, climate-change is
                a hoax, vaccination is dangerous and that a cure for cancer is being
                suppressed by vested interests. Simulations of these claims predict
                that intrinsic failure would be imminent even with the most generous
                estimates for the secret-keeping ability of active participants—the
                results of this model suggest that large conspiracies (≥1000 agents)
                quickly become untenable and prone to failure. The theory presented
                here might be useful in counteracting the potentially deleterious
                consequences of bogus and anti-science narratives, and examining the
                hypothetical conditions under which sustainable conspiracy might be
                possible.



                https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0147905




                TLDR version: the more people involved, the faster someone will blow it. Using some of the examples in the article, counting just the 500,000 soldiers it will be a near certainty the operation will be blown in under 3 years. There's 50% odds it will be blown within one year. And that doesn't count the people staying at home who know about the operation.



                So, realistically, no.






                share|improve this answer









                $endgroup$


















                  3












                  $begingroup$

                  Russia has one of the most liberal immigration policies in the world (a measure Putin's government implemented to counteract its plummeting population due to demographics), but a half-million people in a short period of time is a bit excessive. Still, somewhat theoretically possible.



                  There are two problems you're going to have to deal with. Russia has one of the strictest gun control regimes on the planet. Aside from shotguns and rifles that people in the rural area have limited permission (note: not right) to possess, there are no legal privately owned firearms. So where this army getting its weapons? And where are they keeping them?



                  The second issue is maintaining secrecy. There's actually math that can be used to calculate how long a secret can be kept before it can be expected to get out.




                  On the Viability of Conspiratorial Beliefs



                  Conspiratorial ideation is the tendency of individuals to believe that
                  events and power relations are secretly manipulated by certain
                  clandestine groups and organisations. Many of these ostensibly
                  explanatory conjectures are non-falsifiable, lacking in evidence or
                  demonstrably false, yet public acceptance remains high. Efforts to
                  convince the general public of the validity of medical and scientific
                  findings can be hampered by such narratives, which can create the
                  impression of doubt or disagreement in areas where the science is well
                  established. Conversely, historical examples of exposed conspiracies
                  do exist and it may be difficult for people to differentiate between
                  reasonable and dubious assertions. In this work, we establish a simple
                  mathematical model for conspiracies involving multiple actors with
                  time, which yields failure probability for any given conspiracy.
                  Parameters for the model are estimated from literature examples of
                  known scandals, and the factors influencing conspiracy success and
                  failure are explored. The model is also used to estimate the
                  likelihood of claims from some commonly-held conspiratorial beliefs;
                  these are namely that the moon-landings were faked, climate-change is
                  a hoax, vaccination is dangerous and that a cure for cancer is being
                  suppressed by vested interests. Simulations of these claims predict
                  that intrinsic failure would be imminent even with the most generous
                  estimates for the secret-keeping ability of active participants—the
                  results of this model suggest that large conspiracies (≥1000 agents)
                  quickly become untenable and prone to failure. The theory presented
                  here might be useful in counteracting the potentially deleterious
                  consequences of bogus and anti-science narratives, and examining the
                  hypothetical conditions under which sustainable conspiracy might be
                  possible.



                  https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0147905




                  TLDR version: the more people involved, the faster someone will blow it. Using some of the examples in the article, counting just the 500,000 soldiers it will be a near certainty the operation will be blown in under 3 years. There's 50% odds it will be blown within one year. And that doesn't count the people staying at home who know about the operation.



                  So, realistically, no.






                  share|improve this answer









                  $endgroup$
















                    3












                    3








                    3





                    $begingroup$

                    Russia has one of the most liberal immigration policies in the world (a measure Putin's government implemented to counteract its plummeting population due to demographics), but a half-million people in a short period of time is a bit excessive. Still, somewhat theoretically possible.



                    There are two problems you're going to have to deal with. Russia has one of the strictest gun control regimes on the planet. Aside from shotguns and rifles that people in the rural area have limited permission (note: not right) to possess, there are no legal privately owned firearms. So where this army getting its weapons? And where are they keeping them?



                    The second issue is maintaining secrecy. There's actually math that can be used to calculate how long a secret can be kept before it can be expected to get out.




                    On the Viability of Conspiratorial Beliefs



                    Conspiratorial ideation is the tendency of individuals to believe that
                    events and power relations are secretly manipulated by certain
                    clandestine groups and organisations. Many of these ostensibly
                    explanatory conjectures are non-falsifiable, lacking in evidence or
                    demonstrably false, yet public acceptance remains high. Efforts to
                    convince the general public of the validity of medical and scientific
                    findings can be hampered by such narratives, which can create the
                    impression of doubt or disagreement in areas where the science is well
                    established. Conversely, historical examples of exposed conspiracies
                    do exist and it may be difficult for people to differentiate between
                    reasonable and dubious assertions. In this work, we establish a simple
                    mathematical model for conspiracies involving multiple actors with
                    time, which yields failure probability for any given conspiracy.
                    Parameters for the model are estimated from literature examples of
                    known scandals, and the factors influencing conspiracy success and
                    failure are explored. The model is also used to estimate the
                    likelihood of claims from some commonly-held conspiratorial beliefs;
                    these are namely that the moon-landings were faked, climate-change is
                    a hoax, vaccination is dangerous and that a cure for cancer is being
                    suppressed by vested interests. Simulations of these claims predict
                    that intrinsic failure would be imminent even with the most generous
                    estimates for the secret-keeping ability of active participants—the
                    results of this model suggest that large conspiracies (≥1000 agents)
                    quickly become untenable and prone to failure. The theory presented
                    here might be useful in counteracting the potentially deleterious
                    consequences of bogus and anti-science narratives, and examining the
                    hypothetical conditions under which sustainable conspiracy might be
                    possible.



                    https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0147905




                    TLDR version: the more people involved, the faster someone will blow it. Using some of the examples in the article, counting just the 500,000 soldiers it will be a near certainty the operation will be blown in under 3 years. There's 50% odds it will be blown within one year. And that doesn't count the people staying at home who know about the operation.



                    So, realistically, no.






                    share|improve this answer









                    $endgroup$



                    Russia has one of the most liberal immigration policies in the world (a measure Putin's government implemented to counteract its plummeting population due to demographics), but a half-million people in a short period of time is a bit excessive. Still, somewhat theoretically possible.



                    There are two problems you're going to have to deal with. Russia has one of the strictest gun control regimes on the planet. Aside from shotguns and rifles that people in the rural area have limited permission (note: not right) to possess, there are no legal privately owned firearms. So where this army getting its weapons? And where are they keeping them?



                    The second issue is maintaining secrecy. There's actually math that can be used to calculate how long a secret can be kept before it can be expected to get out.




                    On the Viability of Conspiratorial Beliefs



                    Conspiratorial ideation is the tendency of individuals to believe that
                    events and power relations are secretly manipulated by certain
                    clandestine groups and organisations. Many of these ostensibly
                    explanatory conjectures are non-falsifiable, lacking in evidence or
                    demonstrably false, yet public acceptance remains high. Efforts to
                    convince the general public of the validity of medical and scientific
                    findings can be hampered by such narratives, which can create the
                    impression of doubt or disagreement in areas where the science is well
                    established. Conversely, historical examples of exposed conspiracies
                    do exist and it may be difficult for people to differentiate between
                    reasonable and dubious assertions. In this work, we establish a simple
                    mathematical model for conspiracies involving multiple actors with
                    time, which yields failure probability for any given conspiracy.
                    Parameters for the model are estimated from literature examples of
                    known scandals, and the factors influencing conspiracy success and
                    failure are explored. The model is also used to estimate the
                    likelihood of claims from some commonly-held conspiratorial beliefs;
                    these are namely that the moon-landings were faked, climate-change is
                    a hoax, vaccination is dangerous and that a cure for cancer is being
                    suppressed by vested interests. Simulations of these claims predict
                    that intrinsic failure would be imminent even with the most generous
                    estimates for the secret-keeping ability of active participants—the
                    results of this model suggest that large conspiracies (≥1000 agents)
                    quickly become untenable and prone to failure. The theory presented
                    here might be useful in counteracting the potentially deleterious
                    consequences of bogus and anti-science narratives, and examining the
                    hypothetical conditions under which sustainable conspiracy might be
                    possible.



                    https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0147905




                    TLDR version: the more people involved, the faster someone will blow it. Using some of the examples in the article, counting just the 500,000 soldiers it will be a near certainty the operation will be blown in under 3 years. There's 50% odds it will be blown within one year. And that doesn't count the people staying at home who know about the operation.



                    So, realistically, no.







                    share|improve this answer












                    share|improve this answer



                    share|improve this answer










                    answered 1 hour ago









                    Keith MorrisonKeith Morrison

                    6,3001925




                    6,3001925























                        1












                        $begingroup$

                        The biggest problem that you're going to face is secrecy



                        I probably don't need to point out that 500,000 people is a large number. Each one of those soldiers is a detection risk. If any one of them acts suspiciously enough to be picked up by the Russian intelligence operations. Even worse, each one of your soldiers is a defection risk.



                        And once you've lost the element of surprise, every part of your plan works against you. Your soldiers are isolated, difficult to contact, and in a foreign country. They'll be easily picked up one by one, and by the time it comes for you to trigger the attack, you'll have no army.



                        Even if every member of your army has ironclad loyalty and master level acting skills, you'll still get discovered



                        Wikipedia places the population of temporary migrant workers at about 7 million. That means that 500,000 additional people is about a 7% increase in that count, not exactly a drop in the bucket. Especially since the increase is coming entirely from a single country.



                        Even if some of your soldiers arrive through other channels, you simply can't conceal the movement of that many people, and the powers that be are going to notice. Especially when they notice that your armed forces are vanishing mysteriously.






                        share|improve this answer









                        $endgroup$













                        • $begingroup$
                          "Especially when they notice that your armed forces are vanishing mysteriously." yeah, I was thinking about that in relation to something else. Even assuming your soldiers have ironclad loyalty and master level acting skills, they still need to arrive in Russia which includes a background check. So you'd have to have a bunch of people forging documents for them and making up backgrounds. Are all of these people master level forgers and writers, too? Surely even a bad immigration officer in Russia would eventually go "hold on, this doesn't make sense" after seeing a thousand bacckgrounds.
                          $endgroup$
                          – VLAZ
                          50 mins ago










                        • $begingroup$
                          And somebody at some point would look just a little bit into this mass exodus from the country and see that, gee, the army is getting depleted.
                          $endgroup$
                          – VLAZ
                          49 mins ago
















                        1












                        $begingroup$

                        The biggest problem that you're going to face is secrecy



                        I probably don't need to point out that 500,000 people is a large number. Each one of those soldiers is a detection risk. If any one of them acts suspiciously enough to be picked up by the Russian intelligence operations. Even worse, each one of your soldiers is a defection risk.



                        And once you've lost the element of surprise, every part of your plan works against you. Your soldiers are isolated, difficult to contact, and in a foreign country. They'll be easily picked up one by one, and by the time it comes for you to trigger the attack, you'll have no army.



                        Even if every member of your army has ironclad loyalty and master level acting skills, you'll still get discovered



                        Wikipedia places the population of temporary migrant workers at about 7 million. That means that 500,000 additional people is about a 7% increase in that count, not exactly a drop in the bucket. Especially since the increase is coming entirely from a single country.



                        Even if some of your soldiers arrive through other channels, you simply can't conceal the movement of that many people, and the powers that be are going to notice. Especially when they notice that your armed forces are vanishing mysteriously.






                        share|improve this answer









                        $endgroup$













                        • $begingroup$
                          "Especially when they notice that your armed forces are vanishing mysteriously." yeah, I was thinking about that in relation to something else. Even assuming your soldiers have ironclad loyalty and master level acting skills, they still need to arrive in Russia which includes a background check. So you'd have to have a bunch of people forging documents for them and making up backgrounds. Are all of these people master level forgers and writers, too? Surely even a bad immigration officer in Russia would eventually go "hold on, this doesn't make sense" after seeing a thousand bacckgrounds.
                          $endgroup$
                          – VLAZ
                          50 mins ago










                        • $begingroup$
                          And somebody at some point would look just a little bit into this mass exodus from the country and see that, gee, the army is getting depleted.
                          $endgroup$
                          – VLAZ
                          49 mins ago














                        1












                        1








                        1





                        $begingroup$

                        The biggest problem that you're going to face is secrecy



                        I probably don't need to point out that 500,000 people is a large number. Each one of those soldiers is a detection risk. If any one of them acts suspiciously enough to be picked up by the Russian intelligence operations. Even worse, each one of your soldiers is a defection risk.



                        And once you've lost the element of surprise, every part of your plan works against you. Your soldiers are isolated, difficult to contact, and in a foreign country. They'll be easily picked up one by one, and by the time it comes for you to trigger the attack, you'll have no army.



                        Even if every member of your army has ironclad loyalty and master level acting skills, you'll still get discovered



                        Wikipedia places the population of temporary migrant workers at about 7 million. That means that 500,000 additional people is about a 7% increase in that count, not exactly a drop in the bucket. Especially since the increase is coming entirely from a single country.



                        Even if some of your soldiers arrive through other channels, you simply can't conceal the movement of that many people, and the powers that be are going to notice. Especially when they notice that your armed forces are vanishing mysteriously.






                        share|improve this answer









                        $endgroup$



                        The biggest problem that you're going to face is secrecy



                        I probably don't need to point out that 500,000 people is a large number. Each one of those soldiers is a detection risk. If any one of them acts suspiciously enough to be picked up by the Russian intelligence operations. Even worse, each one of your soldiers is a defection risk.



                        And once you've lost the element of surprise, every part of your plan works against you. Your soldiers are isolated, difficult to contact, and in a foreign country. They'll be easily picked up one by one, and by the time it comes for you to trigger the attack, you'll have no army.



                        Even if every member of your army has ironclad loyalty and master level acting skills, you'll still get discovered



                        Wikipedia places the population of temporary migrant workers at about 7 million. That means that 500,000 additional people is about a 7% increase in that count, not exactly a drop in the bucket. Especially since the increase is coming entirely from a single country.



                        Even if some of your soldiers arrive through other channels, you simply can't conceal the movement of that many people, and the powers that be are going to notice. Especially when they notice that your armed forces are vanishing mysteriously.







                        share|improve this answer












                        share|improve this answer



                        share|improve this answer










                        answered 1 hour ago









                        Arcanist LupusArcanist Lupus

                        4,7971623




                        4,7971623












                        • $begingroup$
                          "Especially when they notice that your armed forces are vanishing mysteriously." yeah, I was thinking about that in relation to something else. Even assuming your soldiers have ironclad loyalty and master level acting skills, they still need to arrive in Russia which includes a background check. So you'd have to have a bunch of people forging documents for them and making up backgrounds. Are all of these people master level forgers and writers, too? Surely even a bad immigration officer in Russia would eventually go "hold on, this doesn't make sense" after seeing a thousand bacckgrounds.
                          $endgroup$
                          – VLAZ
                          50 mins ago










                        • $begingroup$
                          And somebody at some point would look just a little bit into this mass exodus from the country and see that, gee, the army is getting depleted.
                          $endgroup$
                          – VLAZ
                          49 mins ago


















                        • $begingroup$
                          "Especially when they notice that your armed forces are vanishing mysteriously." yeah, I was thinking about that in relation to something else. Even assuming your soldiers have ironclad loyalty and master level acting skills, they still need to arrive in Russia which includes a background check. So you'd have to have a bunch of people forging documents for them and making up backgrounds. Are all of these people master level forgers and writers, too? Surely even a bad immigration officer in Russia would eventually go "hold on, this doesn't make sense" after seeing a thousand bacckgrounds.
                          $endgroup$
                          – VLAZ
                          50 mins ago










                        • $begingroup$
                          And somebody at some point would look just a little bit into this mass exodus from the country and see that, gee, the army is getting depleted.
                          $endgroup$
                          – VLAZ
                          49 mins ago
















                        $begingroup$
                        "Especially when they notice that your armed forces are vanishing mysteriously." yeah, I was thinking about that in relation to something else. Even assuming your soldiers have ironclad loyalty and master level acting skills, they still need to arrive in Russia which includes a background check. So you'd have to have a bunch of people forging documents for them and making up backgrounds. Are all of these people master level forgers and writers, too? Surely even a bad immigration officer in Russia would eventually go "hold on, this doesn't make sense" after seeing a thousand bacckgrounds.
                        $endgroup$
                        – VLAZ
                        50 mins ago




                        $begingroup$
                        "Especially when they notice that your armed forces are vanishing mysteriously." yeah, I was thinking about that in relation to something else. Even assuming your soldiers have ironclad loyalty and master level acting skills, they still need to arrive in Russia which includes a background check. So you'd have to have a bunch of people forging documents for them and making up backgrounds. Are all of these people master level forgers and writers, too? Surely even a bad immigration officer in Russia would eventually go "hold on, this doesn't make sense" after seeing a thousand bacckgrounds.
                        $endgroup$
                        – VLAZ
                        50 mins ago












                        $begingroup$
                        And somebody at some point would look just a little bit into this mass exodus from the country and see that, gee, the army is getting depleted.
                        $endgroup$
                        – VLAZ
                        49 mins ago




                        $begingroup$
                        And somebody at some point would look just a little bit into this mass exodus from the country and see that, gee, the army is getting depleted.
                        $endgroup$
                        – VLAZ
                        49 mins ago











                        1












                        $begingroup$

                        Infiltration might work for small targets, but a whole country is too big of a chop for it to work alone.



                        First of all, if you want to be secretive, you cannot board 500000 soldiers on the smallest number of flights, so you would have to dilute them among normal passengers. Let's say you use 50 soldiers per flight. It takes 10000 flights to carry the entire group, and assuming you fly to the major 3 cities, with a flight every day, it will take you a bit more than 9 years just to infiltrate them.



                        Then you need to provide them logistic support: they will have to be provided weapons, instructions, means of sustaining, a believable façade to ensure they can stay that long in a foreign country without looking too suspicious and without leaking any info outside or defecting. Oh, of course you need that façade also before they depart. Formally they never worked for the army (and I doubt your own government will be happy with having 500000 secret soldiers).



                        Then, when the day X comes, you cannot hope for them to take over the country without giving them some sort of support: air supremacy is a must in modern warfare, and you have infiltrated only soldiers.






                        share|improve this answer









                        $endgroup$


















                          1












                          $begingroup$

                          Infiltration might work for small targets, but a whole country is too big of a chop for it to work alone.



                          First of all, if you want to be secretive, you cannot board 500000 soldiers on the smallest number of flights, so you would have to dilute them among normal passengers. Let's say you use 50 soldiers per flight. It takes 10000 flights to carry the entire group, and assuming you fly to the major 3 cities, with a flight every day, it will take you a bit more than 9 years just to infiltrate them.



                          Then you need to provide them logistic support: they will have to be provided weapons, instructions, means of sustaining, a believable façade to ensure they can stay that long in a foreign country without looking too suspicious and without leaking any info outside or defecting. Oh, of course you need that façade also before they depart. Formally they never worked for the army (and I doubt your own government will be happy with having 500000 secret soldiers).



                          Then, when the day X comes, you cannot hope for them to take over the country without giving them some sort of support: air supremacy is a must in modern warfare, and you have infiltrated only soldiers.






                          share|improve this answer









                          $endgroup$
















                            1












                            1








                            1





                            $begingroup$

                            Infiltration might work for small targets, but a whole country is too big of a chop for it to work alone.



                            First of all, if you want to be secretive, you cannot board 500000 soldiers on the smallest number of flights, so you would have to dilute them among normal passengers. Let's say you use 50 soldiers per flight. It takes 10000 flights to carry the entire group, and assuming you fly to the major 3 cities, with a flight every day, it will take you a bit more than 9 years just to infiltrate them.



                            Then you need to provide them logistic support: they will have to be provided weapons, instructions, means of sustaining, a believable façade to ensure they can stay that long in a foreign country without looking too suspicious and without leaking any info outside or defecting. Oh, of course you need that façade also before they depart. Formally they never worked for the army (and I doubt your own government will be happy with having 500000 secret soldiers).



                            Then, when the day X comes, you cannot hope for them to take over the country without giving them some sort of support: air supremacy is a must in modern warfare, and you have infiltrated only soldiers.






                            share|improve this answer









                            $endgroup$



                            Infiltration might work for small targets, but a whole country is too big of a chop for it to work alone.



                            First of all, if you want to be secretive, you cannot board 500000 soldiers on the smallest number of flights, so you would have to dilute them among normal passengers. Let's say you use 50 soldiers per flight. It takes 10000 flights to carry the entire group, and assuming you fly to the major 3 cities, with a flight every day, it will take you a bit more than 9 years just to infiltrate them.



                            Then you need to provide them logistic support: they will have to be provided weapons, instructions, means of sustaining, a believable façade to ensure they can stay that long in a foreign country without looking too suspicious and without leaking any info outside or defecting. Oh, of course you need that façade also before they depart. Formally they never worked for the army (and I doubt your own government will be happy with having 500000 secret soldiers).



                            Then, when the day X comes, you cannot hope for them to take over the country without giving them some sort of support: air supremacy is a must in modern warfare, and you have infiltrated only soldiers.







                            share|improve this answer












                            share|improve this answer



                            share|improve this answer










                            answered 25 mins ago









                            L.DutchL.Dutch

                            86.2k29201421




                            86.2k29201421






























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